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							<h2 id="t_4d77291f0102vnot" class="titName SG_txta">世说·一场海战催生现代天气预报</h2>
			
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世说<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">·</SPAN>一场海战催生现代天气预报</P>
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文<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">/</SPAN>钱念良</P>
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“</SPAN>草船借箭<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">”</SPAN>中的天气预报</P>
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“</SPAN>草船借箭<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">”</SPAN>的故事来自三国演义，诸葛亮凭借对天气的准确预测<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">“</SPAN>借<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">”</SPAN>到了<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">10</SPAN>万支箭。这个故事用来形容诸葛亮的聪明才智当然未尝不可，但是就中国古代的天气预报水平来说，孔明应当并无精准预测<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">3</SPAN>日内有大雾的能力。因为即便在当今的科技水平下，预测<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">3</SPAN>日内的雾都有很大难度。</P>
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在农业社会，对天气的关注，主要在降雨，因为雨水和庄稼的收成直接相关，生存事大。而从中国古代流传着各种求雨的传说来看，古人对降雨的<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">“</SPAN>预测<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">”</SPAN>并不精准。事实上，尽管古代各国都在努力地观测降雨，但都没能掌握其规律。</P>
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克里米亚战争催生现代天气预报</P>
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天气预报作为一门科学，是在近代才有的事。如今，中国人在电视机前看天气预报，西伯利亚是一个经常提到的地方。那里是寒流的发源地，一路过来，甚至可以在中国的广东形成降雨。</P>
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而俄罗斯也因其大面积均为寒冷地区，在战争中多次获利。最有名的就是拿破仑，拿破仑在<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">11</SPAN>月抵达莫斯科，但是寒流比他到得更早一点，零下<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">20</SPAN>多度的气温，最终决定了法国人失败的命运。</P>
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当然，拿破仑败走并非独一个。之前，瑞典国王查理十二世，之后是二战中的希特勒，在攻打俄罗斯（苏联）时都面临着这样的困境。而现代意义上的天气预报的诞生，也和俄罗斯的战争有关。</P>
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1853-1856</SPAN>年，为争夺巴尔干半岛，沙皇俄国同英法两国爆发了克里米亚战争，结果沙俄战败，正是这次战争，导致了天气预报的出现。</P>
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这是一场规模巨大的海战，<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">1854</SPAN>年<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">11</SPAN>月<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">14</SPAN>日，当双方在欧洲的黑海展开激战时，风暴突然降临，最大风速超过每秒<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">30</SPAN>米，海上掀起了万丈狂澜，使英法舰队险些全军覆没。事后，英法联军仍然心有余悸，法军作战部要求法国巴黎天文台台长勒佛里埃仔细研究这次风暴的来龙去脉。</P>
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那时还没有电话，勒佛里埃只有写信给各国的天文、气象工作者，向他们收集<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">1854</SPAN>年<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">11</SPAN>月<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">12-16</SPAN>日<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">5</SPAN>天内当地的天气情报。他一共收到<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">250</SPAN>封回信。</P>
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勒佛里埃根据这些资料，经过认真分析、推理和判断，查明黑海风暴来自茫茫的大西洋，自西向东横扫欧洲。出事前两天，即<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">11</SPAN>月<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">12</SPAN>、<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">13</SPAN>日，欧洲西部的西班牙和法国已先后受到它的影响。</P>
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勒佛里埃望着天空飘忽不定的云层，陷入了沉思：这次风暴从表面上看来得突然，实际上它有一个发展移动的过程。电报已经发明了，如果当时欧洲大西洋沿岸一带设有气象站，及时把风暴的情况电告英法舰队，不就可避免惨重的损失吗？</P>
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于是，<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">1855</SPAN>年<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">3</SPAN>月<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">19</SPAN>日，勒佛里埃在法国科学院作报告说，假如组织气象站网，用电报迅速把观测资料集中到一个地方，分析绘制成天气图，就有可能推断出未来风暴的运行路径。</P>
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勒佛里埃的独特设想在法国乃至世界各地引起了强烈反响。人们开始认识到准确预测天气不仅有利于行军作战，而且对工农业生产和日常生活都有极大的好处。由于社会上各方面的需要，在勒佛里埃的积极推动下，<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">1856</SPAN>年，法国成立了世界上第一个正规的天气预报服务系统。</P>
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天气预报小史</P>
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天气预报的诞生历史说明，气象条件可以影响局部战争或战役的胜败，而由于战争的需要，又推动和发展了气象事业。</P>
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事实上，从史前开始，人类就试图预测一天或者一个节气之后天气会是怎样：公元前<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">650</SPAN>年左右，巴比伦人凭借观察云的样子来预测天气；公元前<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">340</SPAN>年左右亚里士多德在他的《天象论》中描写了不同的天气状态；中国人至少在公元前<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">300</SPAN>年左右就有了进行天气预报的纪录。</P>
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古代天气预报主要是依靠一定的天气现象，比如人们观察到晚霞之后往往有好天气。这种建立在经验之上的观察积累多了，就形成了很多天气谚语。不过这些谚语后来有不少被证明是不正确的。</P>
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17</SPAN>世纪开始，科学家开始使用科学仪器（比如气压表）来测量天气状态，并使用这些数据来进行天气预报。但很长时间里人们只能使用当地的气象数据，因为当时人们无法快速地将数据传递到远处，以便进行综合全面的天气分析。<span STYLE="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Trebuchet Ms';">1837</SPAN>年电报被发明后人们才能够使用大面积的气象数据来进行天气预报。</P>
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20</SPAN>世纪，气象学发展迅速。人类对天气及其形成过程的了解也越来越清楚。数字天气预测随电脑硬件发展出现并且发展迅速，现在成为天气预报最主要的方式。如今，很多国家都发射了气象卫星，用来观测云层，传回数据，天气预报的准确程度大大提高。</P>
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